Jonathan P. Baird lives in Wilmot.

After the coup attempt on Jan. 6, 2021, and considering Donald Trump’s refusal to recognize the results of the 2020 election, it is hard not to worry about election schemes Trump might have up his sleeve. Sometimes paranoia is justified. John Lennon once said, “Paranoia is just a heightened sense of awareness.”

Many political commentators have remarked on Trump’s often-made statements to his fans about how they don’t have to vote. At a Christian summit, he told attendees that they would never need to vote if he became president again. He said, “get out and vote, just this time.” He went on “you won’t have to do it anymore. Four more years, you know what? It’ll be fixed, it’ll be fine, you won’t have to vote any more, my beautiful Christians.”

Predictably, Democrats lost their minds. This was a typical ambiguous Trump statement that could be interpreted differently. Statements like this always allow Trump plausible deniability when he is accused of wanting to cancel future elections.

When he went on Laura Ingraham’s FOX show, Ingraham gave Trump many opportunities to clarify the “you won’t have to vote again” comment. He gave a less-than-clear answer mostly saying how much Christians support him and how Jewish people who don’t support him “should have their head examined”.

Trump has been saying “we don’t need the votes. I have so many votes.” This is not a one-off comment. He has repeatedly been telling audiences he doesn’t need the votes which is weird even for a candidate who talks excessively about Hannibal Lecter, sharks and electrocution. I cannot recall any presidential candidate saying anything comparable in an election year.

I would suggest a different thing to worry about than the canceling of future elections. I am wondering why Trump is saying he doesn’t need votes now. There is a reason why Trump is saying this. Given his history, the likelihood is that he is saying this because he has another strategy in mind besides getting the most votes and winning the election. If he was serious about winning the vote tally, he would be fighting hard for every vote and he would never discount the importance of voting.

In an important article in the July 29 Rolling Stone, the magazine raised a concern around certification of the 2024 presidential election. They quote Democratic election lawyer Marc Elias, “I think we are going to see mass refusals to certify the election in November. Everything we are seeing about this election is that the other side is more organized, more ruthless and more prepared.”

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Much of the Republican Party remains stuck in conspiracy theories and election denialism. Trump has maintained the fiction that he was cheated in the 2020 presidential race. That belief remains alive and widespread among Republicans including among Republican election officials.

Rolling Stone compiled a list of election officials by culling media reporting about officials who refused to certify results. They write that 70 pro-Trump election deniers ( who they identify by name) are working as local election officials in at least 16 counties across six key battleground states. They go on to say that examination of thousands of posts from hundreds of election officials shows unapologetic belief in Trump’s election lies.

Elias goes on, saying “Republicans are counting on not just that they can discredit the election in big counties but they are counting on the fact that if they don’t certify in several small counties, you cannot certify these statewide results.”

It is entirely possible that if Trump believes he would lose in the Electoral College, he would opt for other routes to power. Certification disputes could land in court or even the House of Representatives where he probably likes the odds better. The Republicans still have a margin in the House. More House state delegations are controlled by Republicans. In that form of voting, Republicans could have enough power to win in the House and decide the presidency for Trump.

Trump believes the House will hand him the presidency even if the voters pick Harris. He will again cry voter fraud. He probably also thinks that a Supreme Court which has treated him as a king will bend to his wishes.

At the least, certification disputes could result in delay and confusion. The chaos could undermine perception of a free and fair election.

Trump might be hoping this could be a vehicle for him to overturn the popular will. Having a criminal mentality, Trump has no loyalty to democracy and any principled notion that the voters should decide. He is about winning at all costs since that is the surest way for him to avoid jail time. The fact that so many Republicans including their standard bearer remain election deniers means a repeat of post-election irregularities are likely again this year.

The Republican battle plan is increasingly clear. It is a multi-pronged strategy that includes mass voter challenges by Republican lawyers to the eligibility of likely Democratic voters and voter roll maintenance to purge as many likely Democratic voters as possible.

Republicans have amassed an army of lawyers both to make it harder for people to vote and to have their vote counted. Trump has promised lawyers at “every poll booth.”

Voter ID disqualification, challenges to mail ballots and gerrymandering are all favorite tactics. Republican-controlled state legislatures have been laboratories for voter suppression. This is in addition to disputing certification.

Lawsuits are part of the groundwork for laying the claim an election was stolen. Danielle Alvarez, a senior advisor to the RNC and the Trump campaign has said that lawsuits were one of the RNC’s main priorities this year. She has said, “This is something that’s very important to President Trump.”

I think Democrats have been slow to see the Trump game plan and why he says he doesn’t need votes because as he says “we got plenty of votes.” Democrats are underestimating how conniving their opponent is. Too many Democrats still seem to expect normal.

If Trump starts falling behind in the polls, expect his talk about a stolen election will increase. Past history may be the best predictor of what will happen between November 2024 and January 2025. Desperation on the Republican side is not likely to produce moderation. It is hard to imagine another January 6 given Biden’s control of the Executive Branch but violence is certainly a possibility for die-hard Trump supporters who won’t accept election results.

In a genuinely fair election, only the voters decide. That must not change.